Arizona drought persists despite heavy Phoenix rainfall

Joe Duhownik

PHOENIX (CN) — Hurricane-fueled downpours ravaged some Arizonans and gave others hope for a wetter future, but climate experts say extreme drought conditions are likely to stick around for at least a while longer.

For most citizens of the Grand Canyon State, last year’s meteorological fall (September-November) was the wettest on record, which still isn’t saying much. The official rain gauge at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport recorded 6.31 inches of rainfall — nearly four times the seasonal average and 0.13 inches above the previous record set in 1939. Yuma County received four inches of rain, also setting a seasonal record.

But despite heavy flooding in Gila and Mohave Counties that killed at least four and prompted Governor Katie Hobbs to declare a state of emergency and request FEMA resources, the rest of the state remained relatively dry

The average temperature across 12 months clocked in at 78.1 degrees Fahrenheit, making it the second hottest year behind the record-breaking hellscape that was 2024. December was the hottest on record, and in April more than 60% of the state was under extreme drought conditions, according to the state Drought Monitoring Technical Committee, which met Thursday morning to discuss the short- and long-term drought outlook.

On a longer scale, December 2020 to November 2025 was the 6th hottest five-year span recorded, State Climatologist Erinanne Saffel explained Thursday. If not for the recent anomalous monsoon, the span would also be among the top 30 driest.

Thanks to heavy rain in central Arizona, the Salt and Verde watersheds — the main source of surface water to Phoenix flowing in from the east — are at 172% of average capacity, already twice what they were at this time last year.

And despite December’s heat, the soil around the state remains moist. That means any runoff from melting mountain snow at the end of the winter will flow right into the aquifers rather than be absorbed by thirsty soil.

“The watershed is primed for runoff, but it’s really dependent on what our winter outlook looks like,” said Stephen Flora, lead hydrologist for the Salt River Project. “We don’t have a lot of water sitting up there in the form of snow right now.”

Phoenix experienced light hail followed by more rain just minutes after the drought committee concluded its meeting, but the state hasn’t yet received enough snowfall to mean promising runoff come spring. Flora said he hopes more snow will come in late winter, but only time will tell.

To the west, the Colorado River continues to dwindle. The watershed is only 38% full, and Lake Mead is dropping closer to 30%, said James Heffner, senior hydrologist with the Arizona Department of Water Resources. The department’s models suggest the system will drop to 23% of capacity by the end of 2026, running the risk of both lakes Mead and Powell reaching “dead pool,” in which downstream release and hydroelectric power generation would become impossible.

In November, Hobbs’ drought interagency coordinating group recommended that the state remain under current drought emergency declarations, which have been in place since 1999 and 2007.