Montana federal races see more than $4 million in fundraising
Micah Drew
(Daily Montanan) Independent candidate for U.S. Senate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, brought in the most money in the first quarter of fundraising, closely trailed by his main opponent, Republican Kurt Alme, who topped all Montana candidates in PAC contributions.
The first round of Federal Election Commission financial filings were due Wednesday from candidates for federal office.
Among Democrats, Ryan Busse, running for the western congressional seat, led the candidates for his election.
Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing raised more than $400,000 to keep his seat, though he has no primary opponent for the Eastern House District.
FEC filings, submitted by each candidate, paint a picture of how a campaign is going, but with some limitations. While large donations — those over $200 — must be disclosed (itemized contributions), smaller ones are aggregated and don’t have to be individually disclosed.
That gives a look at the total amount candidates raise in contributions of $200 or less, often considered grassroots donations, but not a clear picture of how many individual donors are supporting the campaign. (On the low end, you can take the unitemized total and divide it by $200 to get an estimate.)
U.S. Senate — Open seat — rated ‘likely Republican’
The race for Montana’s Senate seat was upended when Republican Sen. Steve Daines dropped out in the final minutes before the candidate filing deadline and picked Alme to replace him — a move decried by Democrats and many Republicans. Daines said in a subsequent interview that the move was done to prevent a more competitive Democratic candidate from entering the race and preventing it from being an expensive election — the last two Senate elections in Montana set subsequent records for a campaign.
But the biggest player in the first quarter is neither Alme nor any Democratic candidate but Bodnar. Bodnar raised the most money, has the most cash on hand, and had the highest amount of unitemized donations, suggesting broader grassroots support than the other candidates.
Alme is a close second on fundraising and cash on hand.
Among the four Democratic candidates, Reilly Neill raised the most money, but more than half of her fundraising came from herself. However, 75% of her contributions were less than $200.
The race is rated “likely Republican” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
U.S. House, MT-01 — Open seat — rated ‘likely Republican’
In another race with an unexpected twist from an incumbent, Rep. Ryan Zinke dropping out late in the game, the western congressional district saw almost as much money raised as the U.S. Senate race.
Three candidates were clear leaders in the quarter’s fundraising, with Democrat Ryan Busse leading in total raised and small-dollar donations, followed by Zinke-endorsed Republican Aaron Flint. The clear Republican favorite, Flint has the most cash on hand of any candidate in the race.
Democrat Sam Forstag raised almost as much as Flint with a high number of grassroots donations, which is fitting for someone with the endorsement of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who heavily campaigned for president as leader of a grassroots movement.
Two other Republicans were set apart from the rest of the field for extensively self-funding their campaigns with at least $100,000.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates this race “likely Republican.”
U.S. House, MT-02 — Incumbent Rep. Downing — rated ‘solid Republican’
Montana’s eastern Congressional District is the least competitive election in the state this year — President Donald Trump won the district by around 30 points in 2024 — incumbent Downing is running for re-election with no primary opponent, and Sabato’s lists it as “solid Republican.”
None of Downing’s potential opponents raised more than $10,000 this quarter, while the incumbent brought in a cool $413,000.