‘Red wave’ and redistricting may play role in Nevada State Senate races
April Corbin Girnus
(Nevada Current) Last year, the Democratic-controlled Nevada State Legislature redrew the boundary lines for all of its 63 political districts. With this year’s midterm elections, they will begin to see whether those decisions are going to pay off and help them maintain, or expand, their majorities.
Those advantages Democrats gave themselves through political redistricting may come head to head with an expected “red wave” of Republican support fueled by voter frustrations over economic issues, particularly inflation.
The outcome of state legislative races will either help or potentially handicap whichever man wins the hotly contested gubernatorial race between Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak and Republican Joe Lombardo, which polls are showing as neck and neck.
Also at stake is control of an expected billion-dollar budget surplus that could be used for one-time appropriations, as well as millions of American Rescue Plan dollars that are still available for states to use at their discretion.
The Nevada State Senate has 21 members. The current makeup of the chamber is 12 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Eleven of those seats will appear on the ballot this year, though not all of the races are competitive.
(Note: We’ll take a look at the 42-member Nevada State Assembly in a separate story tomorrow.)
Republicans controlled the state Senate from 1992 to 2006. Since then, with the exception of the “red wave” of 2014, Democrats have controlled it by one, two or three seats.
In order to take control of the state Senate this year, Republicans will need to successfully defend their existing seats and flip two Democratic ones.
The biggest opportunity for a blue-to-red flip is in District 8, which encompasses Summerlin South and the Lakes in the western part of the Las Vegas Valley. There, Democratic incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop is being challenged by Republican Joey Paulos.
Democrats have a slight voter registration advantage in the district – 33% to 30%. Biden won the district by 4% in 2020.
Dondero Loop, a career educator, has represented the Senate district since 2018. She ran for the seat in 2014 but the Republican, Patricia Farley, won. Before that, Dondero Loop served in the Assembly from 2008 to 2014.
Paulos is a former gaming and hospitality executive turned entrepreneur who developed and managed the Sky Linq Zipline before selling it immediately before the covid pandemic. Paulos has raised eyebrows this election cycle when it was reported he threatened to blow up a plane in 2003. He told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he was struggling with an opioid addiction at the time. (He says he has since been sober for more than 15 years.)
Dondero Loop has raised significantly more campaign contributions, securing $429,000 as of Sept. 30. Paulos raised $191,000 during the same time period.
The second biggest opportunity for a blue-to-red flip is in District 9, where Democratic incumbent Melanie Scheible is being challenged by Republican Tina Brown. District 9 in Southern Nevada includes Spring Valley and parts of the southwest.
The district has an almost 12-point Democratic voter registration advantage and went for Biden in 2020 by 11 points. However, given the overall political climate and the tendency for Republicans to turnout in greater numbers during midterms, it’s being seen as a competitive district this election cycle.
Scheible raised $342,000 in the first three quarters of the calendar year. Brown raised $276,000 during that same time period.
If Democrats are hoping to expand their majority in the Senate, their best opportunity for flipping a seat resides in District 12, which includes Silverado Ranch and parts of Green Valley and Henderson.
District 12 is an open seat and considered a toss up. The district is currently represented by Republican Joe Hardy, though district boundary lines changed significantly with redistricting last year. (Hardy, who was term-limited and could not run for reelection, is now running to be Boulder City mayor.)
Seeking to succeed him in the Senate are Democrat Julie Pazina and Republican Cherlyn Arrington.
Both candidates faced contentious primaries that flooded district residents with flyers. Pazina, who was endorsed by the Nevada Senate Democrats from day one, defeated Clark County School Board Trustee Lisa Guzman in the Democratic primary. Guzman was backed by a PAC affiliated with the Nevada State Education Association, of which she is an executive director.
In the Republican primary, Arrington defeated April Arndt, a more moderate Republican who had the backing of the Senate Republican Caucus during the primary. Arrington has publicly claimed to be “a founding member” of the Oath Keepers, one of the largest far-right anti-government extremist groups in the country.
Pazina has raised $342,000 as of Sept. 30. Arrington raised $109,000.
Six of the state Senate districts are less competitive on paper and less likely to flip parties, with the caveat being, of course, that stranger things have happened in politics, especially at this level.
Districts 16 and 20 are considered safely red when it comes to voter registration and prior election outcomes, which means Republican Lisa Krasner is expected to defeat Democrat Aaron Sims in the former and Republican Jeff Stone is expected to beat Democrat Brent Foutz in the latter.
Krasner is currently an assemblywoman who has represented the area since 2016. If elected, she will succeed state Sen. Don Tatro, who was appointed to the seat to fill the remainder of state Sen. Ben Kieckhefer’s term after he resigned late last year to join the Gaming Control Board. (Tatro ran to retain the seat but lost to Krasner in the GOP primary.)
Stone is a former pharmacy owner who served in the California State Senate before relocating to Nevada. He told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he wants to require state-issued driver’s licenses to list citizenship status and to allow residents to file civil lawsuits against people they suspect committed voter fraud.
If elected, Stone will replace state Sen. Keith Pickard, who opted not to run for reelection.
On the other side of the aisle, there are four districts in this election cycle that are considered safe for Democrats.
Democratic state Sens. Fabian Donate (District 10) and James Ohrenschall (District 21) are expected to retain their seats in their districts. They are running against Republicans Philip Graviet and April Larsen, respectively.
Similarly, Democratic state Assemblyman Edgar Flores looks poised to win in Senate District 2. Republican Leo Henderson is also running. If Flores is elected as expected, he will replace Mo Denis, who was term limited.
In District 13, Democrat Skip Daly is expected to win his race against Republican Matthew Beuhler. If elected as expected, Daly would replace Democrat Julia Ratti, who had represented the district since 2016 but resigned late last year before moving out of her district boundaries.
Daly is a former state assemblyman who served on and off from 2010 to 2020.
The remaining two state Senate races have already been decided.
Republicans Ira Hansen (District 14) and Robin Titus (District 17) are running unopposed in their solidly red rural districts. Hansen is an incumbent who has represented the district since 2018. Titus is currently a state assemblywoman. She faced a competitive primary race against fellow state Assemblymember Jim Wheeler. Titus will replace state Sen. James Settelmeyer, who was term limited.
Settelmeyer is currently the Senate minority leader, meaning a new caucus leader will have to be selected by the members once the election is finalized.