Poll: Daines holds sizable lead over Democratic, independent challengers
Micah Drew
(Daily Montanan) Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who was the first candidate to file for election this month, has a substantial lead against potential challengers to his senate seat, according to a new poll.
American Pulse Research & Polling, a Republican-leaning firm, released a statewide survey on Monday that looked at potential matchups for Daines, who is seeking a third term this fall.
Against both the leading Democratic candidate Reilly Neill, and Seth Bodnar, who is expected to be considering a run as an independent candidate, Daines exceeds 50% among likely voters in Montana.
In a two-way race against Neill, Daines polls at 55.7% of the vote, with Neill receiving 37%.
With Bodnar potentially running as an independent, the margin is closer, with Daines receiving 50.6% and Bodnar 41.6%.
The poll also asked voters about Bodnar if he ran under a Democratic label, and he lost just more than one point of support, while Daines gained more than three points.
In a three-way race, Daines received 51.7% of votes, with Neill coming in second at 25%, and an independent Bodnar receiving nearly 16%.
American Pulse described Bodnar’s position as a “prisoner’s dilemma” in a social media post, with the survey showing he polls best as an independent with no Democrat in the race, but his support “collapses if Dems run Neill.”
The poll was conducted from Feb. 14-18 among 607 likely voters via live telephone interviews and text-to-web surveys, and the results were first reported by NonStop Local News. Respondents self-identified as 50% Republican, 26% Democratic and 20% independent or not a member of a party. The results have a calculated margin of error of 4%. The poll presentation did not disclose who funded the survey.
Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, stepped down last month, to consider other public service. Sources have said he’s debating whether to run as a Democrat or an independent, and political insiders have been arguing about whether he should run as a third party candidate.
No third-party candidate has been elected to a federal or statewide office in Montana.
Survey respondents were asked their opinion of Bodnar, and he had a 14.2% favorable rating, with 5.7% of respondents viewing him unfavorably.
More than 59% of respondents had not heard of Bodnar; which puts his 40% support in a head-to-head matchup against Daines in some perspective — there’s a big challenge to just get his name out there.
The poll broke down responses by media markets, and even in Missoula, 50% of respondents said they had never heard of Bodnar, despite him running the University of Montana for eight years.
Neill showed even less name recognition among likely voters, with 69% saying they’d never heard of her.
Among those who had an opinion of Neill, 7.4% had a favorable impression, while 3.1% had an unfavorable impression.
Forty-eight percent of respondents said they have a favorable impression of Daines, with 38.8% having an unfavorable impression. Daines’ name recognition, as the state’s senior senator is high, with just 4% of voters saying they’d never heard of him.
A spokesperson for the Daines campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Neill did not respond to questions about the poll. A spokesperson connected to Bodnar, not affiliated with UM, did not respond either.
The American Pulse survey asked likely voters about whether the country is headed in the right direction or wrong direction, with 42.9% saying it’s headed in the right direction, and 36.6% responding the wrong direction.
In a generic question about who voters would support for their respective U.S. House seat if the election were today showed 42% of voters in House District 1 supporting the Republican candidate, and 38% saying they would support the Democratic candidate — just outside the margin of error.
Although he hasn’t filed paperwork with the Montana Secretary of State yet, two-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke is running for reelection in the western district, with four Democratic candidates running in the primary to oppose him.
In the eastern district, 58% of voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate, with just 28% saying they’d support the Democratic candidate.
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Troy Downing won his first term by more than 30 percentage points over a Democratic opponent.
The full poll results can be found online here.