Rubio surges, Buttigieg leads in 2028 presidential race
Gabriel Tynes
(CN) — A new poll shows an increasingly competitive landscape for the 2028 presidential race, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio essentially tied with likely Republican voters and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin Newsom in a statistical dead heat with Democrats.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. Rubio performs particularly well among Republicans over 50, leading Vance 41% to 35%, while Vance holds an edge among those under 50, Kimball noted.
“Clearly Rubio’s the one making the move and it’s impacting Vance the most,” Kimball explained in a TV appearance Thursday.
Other potential GOP contenders include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, with each receiving 5% support. Another 15% of likely Republican voters remain undecided.
On the Democratic side, Buttigieg leads with 18%, followed closely by Newsom at 16%. U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands at 11%, Pennsylvania Governor. Josh Shapiro at 10%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 10%, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at 9%, with 18% undecided. Buttigieg has gained two points since February, while Newsom and Harris have slipped.
Looking toward the nearer future, Democrats hold a commanding nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot for the 2026 midterms, leading Republicans 50% to 41%. Both parties receive similarly negative reviews on direction — 58% say the Democratic Party is on the wrong track, and 59% say the same of the Republican Party, numbers that are largely influenced by independent voters, Kimball noted.
“I would say there’s slightly good news in this poll for the Republicans in that they didn’t lose more ground to the Democrats from what we were seeing over the course of three or four months,” Kimball explained. “So they’re making up some ground, but they’re still very far behind.”
The economy remains the top issue for voters at 41%, followed by threats to democracy at 19% — up four points from April — and immigration at 11%, its lowest level this year.
A majority of voters, 57% to 23%, oppose U.S. military intervention in Cuba this year. Opposition crosses demographic lines, including among Hispanic voters (50% to 34%). This poll did not ask participants about the Iran war, but a separate Emerson survey in April found a majority of voters (53%) viewed U.S. military action in Iran as more of a failure, while 35% viewed it as more of a success..
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating stands at 39%, with 55% of voters disapproving. The figures represent a slight one-point dip in both approval and disapproval from April, indicating stable but polarized views of the president almost midway through his second term.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted May 24-25 using a mix of text-to-web and panel interviews, with a credibility interval of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points for the full sample. Subgroups for Democratic and Republican primary voters carry slightly wider margins of plus-or-minus 4.7 points.