California must improve plans to address climate change impacts
Natalie Hanson
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — California officials say that the state must better prepare for the impending impacts of climate change to avoid potentially devastating losses of water in coming years.
The state’s Department of Water Resources on Wednesday released the 2023 State Water Project Delivery Capability Report, analyzing current and future expectations for California’s water supply. Experts reported that the state’s delivery capability and reliability could decrease by as much as 23% within 20 years due to changing flow patterns and extreme weather shifts. That’s equivalent to about 496,000 acre-feet per year, enough to supply more than 1.7 million homes for one year.
“The analysis released today underscores the need to modernize and upgrade our aging infrastructure so we can capture water supplies when it’s wet. Modernizing the State Water Project is critical to delivering on the human right to water in California,” Karla Nemeth, Department of Water Resources director, said in a statement Wednesday.
Experts project that California’s population, now just over 39 million, may boom to 43 million people by 2030. They say it's therefore imperative to prepare for water shortages as the Golden State will see increasingly extreme weather conditions. Periods of high flows that current infrastructure cannot properly capture will clash with long, severe dry periods, according to the report.
The State Water Project’s service area comprises the world’s eighth-largest economy, with more than eight million people living in disadvantaged communities. The report introduces two new approaches to analyze current climate change conditions, and officials recommend emphasizing projects to upgrade infrastructure and better prepare for climate change such as a new reservoir and desalination projects.
Under one of three presented climate change scenarios, the experts reported that if agencies continue to manage water in the same way as conditions become increasingly hot and dry, then the estimated average annual water delivery would measure 13% to 22% lower than under existing conditions.
“Users of this scenario should assume that current climate model simulations indicate that actual 2043 climate conditions would have about a 25% chance of being worse than the conditions represented in this scenario,” the experts wrote. “Put another way, there is an approximately 25% chance that planning (for) only this scenario would leave an agency under planned and potentially under-prepared for the actual climate conditions to which they need to operate.”
The state emphasized the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and efforts to protect its fragile ecosystem while managing water exported from the converging rivers for agricultural and urban uses. The west San Joaquin Valley alone depends on the delta for about 75% of its irrigation supply to produce billions of dollars worth of food each year.
“The delta’s importance to California’s economy and natural heritage cannot be overstated,” the experts wrote. “California would not be the same without that water — hundreds of billions of dollars of economic activity depend upon it.”
Officials report that the Department of Water Resources, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the Water Board and resource agencies are collaborating on new operating permits for the Central Valley Project and a water quality control plan update. In addition, delta water users will explore new ways to cut water use and improvement local habitats.
“Despite uncertainties in future regulations and climate conditions, the 2023 DCR unmistakably demonstrates substantial reductions in delivery capability and reliability if no or insufficient action is taken,” Nemeth wrote. “Immediate action is imperative to address the impact of a warming climate, with the report indicating that these effects are already in motion.”
Built in 1960, the state water project spans more than 700 miles and consists of canals, dams, reservoirs, pumping plants and power plants which provide water to 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland.
“The state water project was designed for the climate of the 20th century when our precipitation fell as snow more reliably between October and May and we could capture that water effectively for future use," the project's deputy director John Yarbrough said in a statement. "We need to continue to adapt and invest in the SWP, so that we can add flexibility and resilience for 21st century conditions and we can avoid these losses in reliability.”
California became the first state to adopt urban water use efficiency targets with the enactment of the Water Conservation Act of 2009. In 2018, two new water conservation laws, Assembly Bill 1668 and Senate Bill 606, created a new conservation framework to establish new urban water use objectives. Building on the framework, Governor Gavin Newsom in April released an updated California Water Plan outlining 142 state actions like building new infrastructure to store and move water.