Report: climate change could cause ag declines of 20%
Laura Lundquist
(Missoula Current) A Montana-based study indicates that climate change will likely cause agricultural jobs and earnings to decrease significantly by mid-century, a change that not only threatens livelihoods but also Montana’s agrarian nature.
After the past few summers have been dominated by heat domes and drought, Missoula-based Farm Connect Montana, formerly known as the Community Food & Agriculture Coalition, commissioned a report titled “The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Montana Agriculture,” which was researched and written by Power Consulting Incorporated. As expected, the conclusions aren’t good.
“The impact of climate change on Montana agricultural operations cannot be understated,” said Bonnie Buckingham, Farm Connect Montana executive director. “Without concerted efforts to slow the release of emissions and measures to support smaller producers, we may see devastating impacts to this important sector of Montana’s economy.”
This year is already expected to be the warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Even more alarming is the fact that the average global temperature between January and September was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial global average. The 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference agreed to make worldwide changes in order to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsuis, although changes have yet to be made. Fortunately, the yearly average global temperature could return below the limit during the last quarter of the year.
“However, it is essential to recognize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Whether it is at a level below or above 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, every additional increment of global warming increases climate extremes, impacts and risks,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a release Monday.
In Montana, those climate change impacts equate to warmer temperatures year-round, which means less snow in winter and blazing hot, dry summers, especially in August. Between 1950 and 2015, the average temperature in Montana has risen 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the Montana Climate Assessment. Under a scenario where the world’s nations take little to no action to reduce carbon emissions, Montana is projected to see a temperature rise of at least 6 degrees Fahrenheit in 25 years.
As far as moisture, Montana is projected to receive an additional 2 inches of precipitation by 2050 - warmer air can hold more moisture - and there’s a greater likelihood it will occur in extreme precipitation events, such as the rain-on-snow event that caused the Yellowstone River to flood in June 2022. The big problem is that less of that precipitation will occur as snow, and less of it will drop during the summer months. The lack of snowpack will also cause rivers and streams to drop rapidly in the summer.
So, while winter and spring moisture can help with early growth of forage and crops like winter wheat, any gains will be increasingly wiped out by summer heat and drought, according to the Farm Connect Montana report. That will equate to a significant economic hit, which the report calculated in terms of the number of agricultural jobs and earnings.
The 42 million acres of pasture and rangeland in Montana will be less productive and what plants do survive will be less nutritious. And while cattle might not suffer as much during winter, the future lack of moisture and increases in the number of extremely hot days during summer will stress livestock. As a result, the report estimates that the cattle industry will suffer a 20% decline by 2050. That will be in addition to the 20% decline that has already been documented on rangeland in the West in the 40 years since 1976 compared to the 50 years prior to 1976.
Montana farmers grow crops on about 16 million acres, although in any given year, about half of that lies fallow. Wheat is the dominant crop, accounting for about half of Montana’s crop production. While winter wheat production may temporarily increase, it can’t compensate for the decline in all other crops due to the dry heat.
Because wheat will have less of an opportunity to mature, studies estimate that wheat production will decline by about 6% for every increase in degrees Celsius. So the report estimates that grain crop yields will also decline by 20% by 2050 under the scenario where emissions continue to rise.
By 2050, the livestock and crop sectors of Montana’s agricultural industry stand to lose 4,500 to 5,000 jobs each, which equates to losses in labor earnings of $86 million to $95 million each, according to the report. But more than that could be lost.
“Farming and ranching are more than an economic enterprise; it is also a way of life. For that reason, there are cultural and social values associated with those undertakings, not just for the farmers and ranchers themselves but also for their communities and the state of Montana as a whole. Agriculture has helped define Montana’s identity, even for many of its non-agricultural residents. In that sense, damaging or weakening agriculture and reducing its role in the state has cultural and social costs which our chosen economic metrics do not reflect,” the report authors wrote.
The report was funded by a grant from the U.S. Energy Foundation, a partnership of philanthropies focused on securing a clean and equitable energy future to tackle the climate crisis.
Contact reporter Laura Lundquist at lundquist@missoulacurrent.com.