Missoula’s land use plan calls for housing diversity, infill and affordability

Martin Kidston

(Missoula Current) Missoula's population is expected to grow over the next 20 years and the city's housing inventory may continue to struggle to meet demand if the city doesn't change its approach to development.

But city officials, developers and housing advocates see hope in the city's new “Our Missoula: 2045 Land Use Plan,” one that sets a guiding vision for the future and Missoula's continued quest for affordability.

If adopted in the coming weeks, the plan will officially replace the current growth policy and set the stage for code reform, which is expected to follow next year.

“To achieve our shared vision for growth, Missoula needs to evolve and change. We know that and we've heard that,” Mayor Andrea Davis said Wednesday. “Some will feel like the proposed changes are too much for a neighborhood, and some are going to feel like we haven't gone far enough. We will always come back and evaluate the efforts we've made in this plan.”

The 123-page plan complies with mandates adopted by the Montana Legislature while setting a vision for inward growth, an increase in housing choices and access, and improving the city's economic health, among other things.

Coupled with the city's Long Range Transportation Plan, the document “will inform zoning and development decisions” moving forward and “meet community needs and desires that attract new businesses, protect the environment and plan effective infrastructure.”

“Growth is something that's going to happen in Missoula whether we like it or not, so smart community planning means being ready for that,” said Missoula City Council member Mike Nugent. “This plan really continues the path that Missoula is already on to try and create environments that are conducive for housing to be developed, or housing to be created more densely than it currently is in areas that already have the infrastructure.”

Missoula's Housing Needs

The state's new Montana Land Use Planning Act mandates that all cities with more than 5,000 residents update their land-use plans, zoning regulations and subdivision rules by 2026. It also requires cities to project their population and housing needs into the future.

According to the draft of Missoula's Land Use Plan, the city's current estimated population of nearly 94,000 residents is expected to grow to 116,000 people by 2045. As it stands, Missoula already faces a housing deficit of roughly 3,000 homes, and it will need to create 27,000 more housing units by 2045.

Achieving those figures at the current rate – and under the city's current regulations – may be difficult if not impossible to achieve, according to some. But efforts within the new land-use plan are intended to help.

“It's no secret that Missoula is short on housing inventory, particularly for-sale inventory, but housing inventory at all levels,” said Adam Hertz, a local developer and former state legislator. “The plan needs to reduce housing costs and create more equitable access to housing across the city in a market that has been supply constrained for a better part of a decade.”

While the teeth needed to implement those goals will come through code reform, the new land-use plan identifies several ways to streamline development and tackle affordability. Among them, the plan's desire for infill development will bring new projects closer to existing infrastructure while also allowing for more diverse housing types in places where diversity is limited.

When zoning changes are made down the road, developers will have more building options. And with land both scarce and expensive, having more options could help address affordability.

“There's not a week that doesn't go by when I see a new property on the market that piques my interest, and immediately my interest is shut down because the zoning doesn't allow any type of redevelopment that makes financial sense and brings more housing to the market,” Hertz said. “This plan and the subsequent zoning process will be an important part of bringing more housing inventory to the market and creating that migration chain that ultimately makes housing more affordable.”

The Housing Migration Chain

While some in recent years have blasted what they deem as “upscale housing,” local housing advocates believe that natural migration through the housing market frees up more affordable homes. But they also agree that all housing types, from deed-restricted housing to market rate, should be permitted among the suite of building options.

In order to create a healthy vacancy rate of roughly 5%, the city needs to add roughly 3,500 new homes immediately while also keeping pace with growth, according to the plan. To address the issue, the city must develop a “diverse, equitable and resilient housing system.”

The plan also suggests that housing production must accelerate to 1,500 homes annually for the next 10 years, and 1,100 homes each year for the remaining 15 years of the plan. While the plan encourages all housing types across all incomes, it also looks toward affordability by allowing smaller lot sizes, accessory dwelling units and cluster housing, among other things.

“Housing capacity in Missoula has been a challenge for much of the last decade,” said Nugent. “This plan allows some of the neighborhoods that people really like in Missoula to be replicated in ways that our current zoning doesn't. We need housing of all types. There's no single area that's going to meet all our housing needs.”

Chris Chitty, president of Hone Architects and Builders in Missoula, said the housing crisis in Missoula has been decades in the making, and will require time and incremental steps to reverse.

Chitty said that zoning implemented in the past has reduced building options in the city's traditional neighborhoods while driving up prices and leaving development to sprawl to other areas. But he also sees the goals baked into new Land Use Plan as “the most ambitious” effort yet to address the issue.

“This plan unlocks development potential in many areas of the city where there are no real development options now,” Chitty said. “The fact that we have to spend hard-to-come-by public dollars on people that make 120% of the area median income is crazy. We need the market to serve those people so we can save our scarce public dollars to serve those people making less.”