Viewpoint: Montana’s $8B gamble on losing public lands

John Tubbs

Growing up in Montana I was able to cross our neighbors’ ranches with a promise of closing any gate you opened. Many of these ranches are now closed to the public and marked by orange fence posts and “No Trespass” signs. This era of open access is gone and it’s not coming back. Once lost, gone forever.

Access to and protection of Montana’s great outdoors is again under threat. Across the West, calls for massive federal land transfer are being litigated and legislated by the far-right. Often promoted under the guise of the “State will do it better” don’t be misled, the goal is to privatize our public lands. Once lost, gone forever. And at what cost?

Proposals to transfer federal lands to state control isn’t just bad policy - it’s a financial time bomb. We delved into the research and analysis of what the federal land transfer movement would do in Montana and the numbers were staggering. Montana taxpayers could be on the hook for nearly $8 billion over the next 20 years. That’s a staggering cost for a state already stretching its budget thin. These aren’t just theoretical numbers. That bill includes wildfire suppression, where costs could increase tenfold, plus extensive deferred maintenance on roads and bridges not to mention a billion-dollar abandoned mine cleanup tab. That’s not counting the enormous ripple effects this would have on ranching, tourism, and rural communities.

Here’s the kicker: the federal government currently sends over $40 million a year to Montana counties through Payments-in-Lieu-of-Taxes (PILT), funding everything from schools to road maintenance. If federal lands were transferred, that support would vanish. And with it, the lifeline for many rural counties. School closures, layoffs, and bankruptcies would follow. And no, the state doesn’t have a replacement plan. It doesn’t even have a PILT program.

Our ranching families would also pay the price. The current federal grazing rate is $1.35 per animal unit month. Under state control, it would spike to $23. That’s a 1,600% increase—enough to cripple ranches and send shockwaves through Montana’s agricultural economy and its banking system.

Tourism is Montana’s $5.45 billion economic engine. Our national parks and public lands draw millions of visitors each year. Privatizing or fragmenting those lands would undermine the very appeal that drives that economy. Fewer visitors mean fewer jobs, less income, and higher taxes for the rest of us.

The truth is, this whole land transfer scheme isn’t about better management—it’s about privatization. Once the state realizes it can’t afford the costs, it’ll have little choice but to sell off our public lands. That means less access for hunters, anglers, hikers, and families. What was once open and free would become locked behind “No Trespassing” signs.

Don’t be fooled when some argue that a land transfer is about local control. There is a larger, systematic movement currently underway.

The Trump Administration labeled public lands part of “America’s balance sheet,” and recent moves by HUD and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum point to plans for land sales disguised as housing solutions. Congress recently removed language to sell public lands from the House budget reconciliation package—but the fight now moves to the Senate.

That’s why we need Senator Daines, a powerful voice in the Senate and powerful recent chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to stand up and say no. He must lead the charge against this dangerous idea and ensure Senator Sheehy joins him. Because this movement isn’t going away.

And, it isn’t just a bad bet - it’s a betrayal of our values, our economy, and our way of life. We need Senator Daines to use his political might to take a leading role in stopping this foolish gamble on Montana’s future.

Montana’s future depends on preserving the lands that define us—not selling them to the highest bidder.

The report referenced in this column was authored by John Tubbs in conjunction with the Montana Wildlife Federation, Backcountry Hunters and Anglers, Montana Conservation Voters Education Fund and Mountain Mamas and can be viewed and downloaded on the websites.