Viewpoint: Slow down and let science earn the public’s trust

Marc Cooke

Montana's proposed 2026–2027 wolf season presents an opportunity to chart a new course—one rooted in caution, transparency, and science. While Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (MTFWP) deserves credit for reducing the proposed statewide wolf harvest quota from 500 wolves to 250, the agency is simultaneously asking the public to embrace a new population model, iPOM 2.0, that dramatically changes our understanding of Montana's wolf population.

Before moving forward with another significant harvest, Montanans deserve a clear explanation of what this new science means and how it should influence management decisions.

For years, Montana relied on the peer-reviewed iPOM model, which estimated approximately 1,091 wolves statewide. Under the newly developed iPOM 2.0 model, that estimate drops to roughly 725 wolves. Some scientists and advocates believe the actual population may be even lower—possibly closer to 600 wolves. Whether that lower estimate ultimately proves accurate remains an important scientific question. What is beyond dispute is that such a dramatic change in the estimated population should give everyone—regardless of where they stand on wolves—reason to pause before authorizing another substantial harvest.

MTFWP has acknowledged that iPOM 2.0 has not yet completed peer review. That does not mean the model is wrong, but it does mean the public deserves a thorough explanation of why the estimates changed so dramatically, what assumptions were revised, and how much uncertainty remains. When new science fundamentally changes our understanding of a wildlife population, responsible management calls for caution, transparency, and public engagement.

The proposed reduction in the statewide quota from 500 wolves to 250 recognizes that circumstances have changed. However, if Montana now believes it supports significantly fewer wolves than previously estimated, the responsible question becomes whether a quota of 250 remains appropriately cautious until the new model has earned both scientific confidence and public trust.

Particularly concerning are Wolf Management Units 313 and 316 bordering Yellowstone National Park. These areas contain some of the world's most recognized wolves—animals that contribute not only to healthy ecosystems but also to local economies. Every year, wildlife enthusiasts travel from around the world hoping to observe Yellowstone wolves, supporting hotels, restaurants, guide services, gas stations, and other small businesses throughout gateway communities.

This year, Yellowstone's wolves have already experienced a major setback. Canine distemper claimed many of this year's pups, contributing to one of the park's lowest wolf populations since reintroduction. Today, Yellowstone supports fewer than 70 wolves. Disease has already reduced recruitment and placed additional pressure on these packs. Every additional human-caused mortality outside the park therefore carries greater biological and economic significance.

Unfortunately, the vulnerability of Yellowstone wolves has already been demonstrated through legal harvests beyond area quotas and poaching. Once these highly visible wolves are lost, the ecological, educational, scientific, and economic benefits they provide are lost as well.

Given Yellowstone's current low population, the recent impacts of distemper, and the uncertainty surrounding Montana's new iPOM 2.0 model, MTFWP and the Fish and Wildlife Commission should reduce the proposed quotas in Wolf Management Units 313 and 316 from three wolves each to one wolf each. This modest adjustment represents a reasonable, science-based precaution while managers continue evaluating both Yellowstone's recovery and Montana's updated population estimates.

Another proposal deserving careful scrutiny is the removal of trapping setbacks in Region 1.

Eliminating these setbacks will likely increase trapping and snaring activity closer to areas used by hikers, hunters, campers, dog owners, and other recreationists. That increases the risk to family pets, non-target wildlife, and public safety while creating unnecessary conflict on publiclands. Existing setbacks represent a sensible balance that protects both recreational users and wildlife.

Montana's wildlife belongs to all Montanans—not solely to those who hunt, trap, outfit, or ranch. Wildlife also belongs to photographers, wildlife watchers, tribal communities, scientists, local businesses, and millions of Americans who value these animals for their ecological, educational, cultural, and economic importance. Wildlife management works best when all stakeholders have a meaningful voice.

Too often, wolf management has been perceived as an effort to reduce populations to the lowest possible level while remaining above the threshold that could trigger renewed protection under the Endangered Species Act. Whether or not that perception is entirely accurate, it has weakened public confidence in the management process. Wildlife management should not focus on maintaining the minimum number of wolves legally permissible. It should focus on maintaining healthy, resilient populations guided by the best available science.

That also requires insulating wildlife management from excessive political influence. Elected officials, outfitters, and hunting interests deserve a seat at the table, but they should not dominate decisions involving a public trust resource. Montana's wolves belong to everyone, and management decisions should reflect the interests of all stakeholders, including conservationists, scientists, wildlife watchers, local businesses, tribal nations, and the general public.

The responsible path forward is straightforward. Continue evaluating iPOM 2.0 through peer review. Fully explain the model and its assumptions to the public. Build confidence through transparency. Reduce harvest pressure while uncertainty remains. Lower the quotas in Wolf Management Units 313 and 316 to one wolf each. Retain Region 1 trapping setbacks until their impacts on public safety and non-target captures are fully understood. Above all, make decisions based on the best available science rather than political pressure.

Montana has long been recognized as a leader in wildlife conservation. Leadership is not demonstrated by how aggressively we reduce wildlife populations. It is demonstrated by the willingness to proceed carefully when new science raises important questions. Today we face two realities: Montana's new population model estimates substantially fewer wolves than previously believed, and Yellowstone's wolves are experiencing one of their lowest populations since reintroduction after significant pup losses to canine distemper. Neither circumstance calls for haste. Both call for caution.

Wolves are a public trust resource belonging to every citizen. They deserve management that is transparent, scientifically credible, and worthy of the public's confidence. When uncertainty increases, responsibility demands greater caution—not greater risk.

Marc Cooke is resident of Wolves of the Rockies